Unfortunately for Miami, this year there will be no debate over which tournament is “the fifth major.” That honor already belongs to Indian Wells, where Rafael Nadal made a stunning return to hard courts by defeating Juan Martin Del Potro in Sunday’s final. Del Potro now makes his way to South Beach for the Sony Open, but Nadal won’t be joining him. Nor will Roger Federer, Mardy Fish, Marcos Baghdatis, and Ernests Gulbis—just to name a few. Still, it remains one of the biggest events of the season and Novak Djokovic will have a bullseye on his back as the rest of the field tries to deny him a three-peat.
Sony Open
Where: Miami, Florida
Prize money: $4,169,090
Top seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: With Federer and Nadal out of the equation, a ton of competitors in Miami have favorable draws. Contrary to what the ATP website claims, that includes Djokovic. The two-time defending champion may face Lukas Rosol in his opener, but that will be hyped up way more than it deserves simply based on what happened last summer at Wimbledon. Djokovic’s nearest seed is Feliciano Lopez and the 5-8 seed in his quarter is a slumping Janko Tipsarevic. Tipsarevic’s eighth of the draw presents huge opportunities for everyone, especially Kevin Anderson. The 6’8’’ South African is coming off a quarterfinal showing in Indian Wells and he should repeat that performance with a projected path that features Tipsarevic and Gilles Simon, whom Anderson ousted in a three-setter last week.
Furthermore, Djokovic has a relatively out-of-form David Ferrer on his side of the draw instead of fourth-seeded Tomas Berdych, who continues to play stellar tennis. Ferrer was blown out by Nadal 6-0, 6-2 in the Acapulco final and he got a bad draw in the desert, where he dropped his opening match to Anderson. The fifth-ranked Spaniard has a friendly path en route to the Miami fourth round and he should reach the quarters even if Kei Nishikori is 100 percent (which is unlikely). At that point, however, Ferrer would likely run into Del Potro—whose section of the draw really could not be any easier. Some intriguing early-rounders to watch in the second quarter are James Blake vs. Ryan Harrison, Ricardas Berankis vs. Jurgen Melzer, and possibly Fabio Fognini vs. Benoit Paire in the second round.
If a Djoker-Delpo rematch seems like an inevitability in the top half, the bottom half is tougher to call. Berdych should have a borderline cakewalk through the first week of play with Fernando Verdasco as his nearest seed. The sixth-ranked Czech can expect to find himself in a hard-hitting, fourth-round affair with either Milos Raonic or Sam Querrey. A possible opponent in the last eight for Berdych is Richard Gasquet, who already owns two titles this season and has a great draw on the other side of the third quarter. Gasquet’s only apparent threat prior to the quarterfinals is 10th-seeded Nicolas Almagro.
As for Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, they are in a fourth section loaded with guys who are talented but not quite putting it together at the moment. For example, what a difference a year makes for John Isner. At this time in 2012, Isner beat Djokovic en route to the Indian Wells final while also rolling over the likes of Federer and Tsonga in Davis Cup. Now he is barely winning matches of any sort. Isner could face Tsonga in the fourth round following a third-round date with Marin Cilic, who is not exactly in a slump but is thoroughly underwhelming at big events. Jerzy Janowicz, on course to meet Murray in the last 16, is playing decent tennis but has not caught fire in 2013 like he did at the Paris Masters. Grigor Dimitrov, Murray’s nearest seed, finished runner-up to the Scot in Brisbane only to struggle ever since. Someone in this quarter is going to get hot (maybe even the winner of a blockbuster first-rounder between David Nalbandian vs. Jarkko Nieminen). The question is who’s it gonna be.
First-round upset alerts: With all 32 seeds getting byes to the second round in a field of 96, there won’t be any significant upsets on Wednesday and Thursday. Still, a surprise or two is not out of the question. All three American wild cards—James Blake, Christian Harrison, and Rhyne Williams—have winnable matches against higher-ranked but very beatable opponents. Blake is facing Ryan Harrison, Christian is going up against Thomaz Bellucci, and Williams will have a good shot at Santiago Giraldo even though the Colombian might as well be playing at home.
Second-round upset alerts: All 32 seeds will be in second-round action, so there will be plenty of upset opportunities. Among them:
Marinko Matosevic over (7) Janko Tipsarevic – Tipsarevic has been nothing more than hopeless since he retired against Almagro in the Australian Open fourth round. His losing streak has hit five and in none of those matches did he win a set. His received bagels in both Dubai (from Nikolay Davydenko) and Indian Wells (to Ernests Gulbis). A Miami opener against an in-form Matosevic would not help matters.
Nikolay Davydenko over (19) Alexandr Dolgopolov – This is always going to be a tough matchup to predict because there is no way to tell when either one is going to show up. Dolgopolov certainly didn’t the last time they squared off, which resulted in a 6-1, 6-1 drubbing by Davydenko last summer in Cincinnati. With the Ukrainian in lackluster form, Davdeydenko will have every chance to extend his lead in the head-to-head series to 3-0.
Ivan Dodig over (20) John Isner – Isner may be as low as he can go right now, and perhaps the fact that he finally has a chance to gain some points as opposed to defending will relieve some pressure. Dodig, however, would not be an easy opponent with which to begin. The Croat has won two matches at each of his last two events (Delray Beach and Indian Wells).
Alejandro Falla over (25) Fernando Verdasco – Verdasco is a horrendous 2-4 in 2013 and he has lost his opening match at three of four tournaments. In danger of being unseeded for the French Open, the Spaniard is on a three-match skid dating back to the third round Down Under. Falla, who hails from Columbia, will have the added benefit of rabid crowd support.
Evgeny Donskoy over (30) Feliciano Lopez – Donskoy could not quite sustain a ridiculous level for more than one set against Murray in Indian Wells, but he won’t have to against Lopez. The veteran Spaniard had one productive tournament (a runner-up finish in Memphis) earlier this season, but he is still getting back into the swing of things in the aftermath of a wrist injury.
Jurgen Melzer over (31) Marcel Granollers – This would only be an upset according to ranking and seed, because Granollers is 5-7 this year and he has not advanced past a second round since his first tournament in Sydney. Melzer may be fatigued after a long week in Dallas, but he is finally playing with some confidence after capturing the Challenger title there (he also triumphed in doubles with Philipp Petzschner).
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, Kevin Anderson, Igor Sijsling, Marinko Matosevic, Rhyne Williams, Bernard Tomic, Jarkko Nieminen
Cold: Janko Tipsarevic, Juan Monaco, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Alexandr Dolgopolov, John Isner, Florian Mayer, Fernando Verdasco, Mikhail Youzhny, David Goffin, Pablo Andujar, Thomaz Bellucci
Quarterfinal predictions: Novak Djokovic over Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin Del Potro over David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych over Nicolas Almagro, and Andy Murray over John Isner
Semifinals: Djokovic over Del Potro and Murray over Berdych
Final: Djokovic over Murray
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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