Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a blockbuster title match in Miami. They first have to get past respective semifinal opponents Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori on Friday.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (7) Tomas Berdych
Nadal and Berdych will be squaring off for the 21st time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Sony Open Tennis tournament on Friday night. The head-to-head series once stood at 3-1 in Berdych’s favor, but Nadal has won 16 in a row to take a 17-3 lead (including 10-3 on hard courts). They faced each other five times last year, with the Spaniard surrendering only one set in the process–in their most recent encounter, a 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 decision at the World Tour Finals.
“I don’t even know the number,” Berdych said, referring to his futile history against the current world No. 1. “I stopped counting.”
In this form, both players are well on their way to 2014 London berths. Nadal is 21-2 for the season following Miami defeats of Lleyton Hewitt, Denis Istomn, Fabio Fognini, and Milos Raonic. Berdych is 20-4 thanks to straight-set scalps of Stephane Robert, Joao Sousa, John Isner, and Alexandr Dolgopolov. The seventh-ranked Czech has the prototypical game that can trouble Nadal, but he has a hard time executing it against his opponent’s variety of backhand slices and heavy topspin forehand. Unless Berdych serves incredibly well, more of the same should continue.
Pick: Nadal in 2 with at least one tiebreaker
(20) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Novak Djokovic
Djokovic and Nishikori will be doing battle for just the third time in their careers on Friday afternoon. The head-to-head series is tied up at one win apiece. They have not met since 2011, when Nishikori prevailed 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-0 in the Basel semifinals one year after Djokovic scored a 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 victory at Roland Garros.
This has been a dream fortnight for Nishikori, who boasts wins over Marinko Matosevic, Grigor Dimitrov, David Ferrer (saved four match points in a third-set tiebreaker), and Roger Federer (trailed by a set and a break). Japan’s top player is now 17-4 for his 2014 campaign. Djokovic is 15-2 after getting past Jeremy Chardy, Tommy Robredo, and Andy Murray. The second-ranked Serb can do everything Nishikori can do–such as play great defense and take balls early right on top of the baseline–and can do it better. At some point, the underdog’s grueling matches have to catch up with him.
Pick: Djokovic in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
