To say the semifinals were a dud would be an understatement, but the stage is now set for a blockbuster title match at the Sony Open. A three-team panel previews and picks the 40th meeting between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will be squaring off for the 40th time in their careers when they battle for the Sony Open Tennis tournament title on Sunday afternoon.
Nadal leads the head-to-head series 22-17, but Djokovic is 13-7 against his chief rival on hard courts. They faced each other six times last year, splitting those encounters at three wins apiece; 1-1 on clay and 2-2 on hards. Nadal prevailed at both the French Open (6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 9-7) and U.S. Open (6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1) before Djokovic scored twin 6-3, 6-4 victories in Beijing and at the World Tour Finals.
photos courtesy of Miami Tennis News
Both players are coming off walkovers on an utterly bizarre semifinal Friday. Kei Nishikori (groin) withdrew prior to meeting Djokovic and Tomas Berdych (illness) pulled out ahead of his showdown against Nadal. Djokovic also got a free pass from Florian Mayer in the third round. The second-ranked Serb has played just three matches at this event, defeating Jeremy Chardy, Tommy Robredo, and Andy Murray in straight sets. Nadal has wins over Lleyton Hewitt, Denis Istomin, Fabio Fognini, and Milos Raonic–losing one set to Raonic in the process.
“I have seen a couple matches of Rafa’s,” Djokovic said. “He’s hitting the ball really well, feeling confident on this court. He’s never won this tournament, so I think that is extra motivation for him.”
“I know I have to be solid with my serve,” Nadal analyzed. “I need to play aggressive, no doubt about that. We are playing on a court that today probably is his favorite court. That’s hard. He arrives to the final with good confidence after winning in Indian Wells.”
Ricky: Dating back to the 2012 clay-court swing, Nadal has won six of their last seven meetings outside of the Asian swing (which is traditionally the Spaniard’s worst part of the year by some margin). That analysis is not entirely fair to Djokovic given that the majority of those clashes came on clay and Sunday’s collision will come on a hard court, but it’s still a check mark in Nadal’s favor that is worth noting. In my opinion the walkover situation helps Nadal. He has been tested enough in Miami (against Raonic) but diminishing his hard-court match count by one is never a bad thing. Djokovic, on the other hand, has not been challenged at all aside from his first set against Murray. As for the eye test, I’ve simply been more impressed with Nadal than with Djokovic of late. The Serb lost to Roger Federer in Dubai and really back-doored his way into the Indian Wells title. Nadal 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Steen Kirby (Tennis East Coast): World No. 1 Nadal and world No. 2 Djokovic will finally meet for the first time this season after their expected encounters at the Australian Open and Indian Wells did not result as planned. This is the last match of the spring hard-court season and going into the clay campaign both players will be looking to set the tone in the race for year-end No. 1. Djokovic is on a nine-match winning streak dating back to the start of Indian Wells and he got a couple of lucky walkovers this week, so he has played a mere six sets of tennis to reach the final. Nadal bounced back from a very poor showing in Indian Wells to get four wins and a walkover in Miami, including one three-set victory against Raonic in the quarterfinals. Both players have lost just twice this year and appear to be in peak form. Nadal is playing his fourth Miami final (0-3 in prior appearances), while Djokovic is going for his fourth Miami title. They have two previous head-to-head meetings in Miami and Djokovic has won both. Given that history and current form, I have to go with the Serb in a close match. Djokovic 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.
Jared Pine (The Second Serb): Momentum is firmly in Djokovic’s favor for Sunday afternoon’s final. He is coming off of a triumph in Indian Wells and defeated Nadal in straight sets in each of their last two meetings, which were both hard-court finals. With a win in Miami, Djokovic will join Federer as the only players to complete the Indian Wells-Miami double twice. Meanwhile, Nadal will be playing for his first career title at this event. A victory would give him titles at seven of the nine current Masters 1000 events. Also, it would give Nadal a little bit more breathing room in the rankings before the clay season–during which he will have a lot to defend. Nadal was very impressive in his first three rounds with straight-set wins, but he needed three sets to take out Raonic. Djokovic, on the other hand, has needed to play only six sets to reach the final. Aside from his loss in the Australian Open, the Serb has handled the big moments well since losing the No. 1 ranking. I expect that to continue in Miami. Djokovic 6-4, 5-7, 7-6.
